Thermal Insulation Association of Canada

This study made use of the Construction Labour Market Projection System which is a computer-based analytical aide to forecasting the demand for labour in 50 construction trades, to the year 2008. The model contains historical data from 1986 to 2000, and develops predictions for 2001 through 2008 based on assumptions of how the future will unfold. Two scenarios were developed: an optimistic, upside view (called the Orange Scenario) and a more pessimistic, cautious expectation of developments in the economy generally and the construction industry in particular (called the Brown Scenario).

The Figure below provides a picture of the history of total construction activity, measured in constant 1986$, and total construction employment in Canada from 1989 to 2000 and compares the outlook under the Brown and Orange Scenarios for the years from 2001 to 2008.

The traditional cyclical swings in the construction industry are evident in the first period: contraction in the early 1990s followed by an expansion in the mid 1990s, followed by another cycle of contraction and expansion. In the Brown Scenario, there will be a contraction of the industry in the early 2000s and a modest recovery thereafter. Employment will show a greater volatility than construction GDP. In the Orange Scenario, total activity rises steadily over the period to 2008.

What do these scenarios imply for the Insulator trade? The Alberta Research Council, on contract to the National Insulator Labour Market Study Committee, developed estimates of the demand for insulators, based on these two predictions of construction activity. The results (measured in thousands of hours of insulator work) are shown in the Figure2 on the following page. In the Brown scenario, demand for insulators shows some of the traditional cyclical behaviour; nevertheless, by 2008 the demand is about 10% higher than in the base year of 2000. In the Orange Scenario, demand grows continuously throughout the period to a level about 35% higher than the 2000 base year.

To determine if there would be a potential shortage or surplus of Insulators in the year 2008, two scenarios (upper and lower bounds) on the likely situation in the future were developed. A mid-point result has also been provided which suggests that there could be shortage of as many as 700 Insulators in the year 2008. Refer to the Table below.